Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
