A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
